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2100 United States Presidential Election
The 2020 United States presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn on December 14, 2020,"3 U.S.C. § 7 - U.S. Code - Unannotated Title 3. The President § 7. Meeting and vote of electors", FindLaw.com. will either elect a new president and vice president or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses is likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's nominee (and running mate). Donald Trump, the 45th and incumbent president, has launched a reelection campaign for the Republican primaries; several state Republican Party organizations have cancelled their primaries in a show of support for his candidacy. 27 major candidates launched campaigns for the Democratic nomination, which became the largest field of candidates for any political party in the post-reform period of American politics. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Background Procedure Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This would require a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention. Several Republican state committees are reportedly contemplating scrapping their 2020 primary/caucus, while others have already preemptively done so. They have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively. On August 26, 2019, the Maine legislature passed a bill adopting ranked-choice voting both for presidential primaries and for the general election. On September 6, 2019, Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but puts Maine on track to be the first state to use ranked-choice voting for a presidential general election. The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of electors, as Maine and Nebraska have used in recent elections. The change could potentially prevent the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for over a week after election day, and will also complicate interpretation of the national popular vote. The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution states that an individual cannot be elected to the presidency more than twice. This prohibits former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from being elected president again. Former president Jimmy Carter, having served only a single term as president, is not constitutionally prohibited from being elected to another term in the 2020 election, though he has no plans to do so saying, "95 is out of the question. I'm having a hard time walking. I think the time has passed for me to be involved actively in politics, much less run for president." On October 31, 2019, the House of Representatives voted procedures governing public hearings regarding a possible impeachment of President Trump. These are scheduled to take place starting mid-November 2019. If the House votes to impeach the president, a possible trial in Senate held during the primary season would affect those senators running for the Democratic nomination, since they would be called to attend the trial instead of stumping on the campaign trail. Demographic trends The age group of what will then be people in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite. A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic minorities, as well as "whites with a college degree", are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. This shift is potentially an advantage for the Democratic nominee; however, due to geographical differences, this could still lead to President Trump (or a different Republican nominee) winning the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016. Simultaneous elections The presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect which also helps other candidates of that party win elections. Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections. Nominations Republican-Libertarian Party Donald Trump is formally seeking re-election. His re-election campaign has been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign". On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 p.m., he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act. Beginning in August 2017, reports arose that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against Trump, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party. Then-Arizona senator John McCain said, "Republicans see weakness in this president." Maine senator Susan Collins, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump would be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating "it's too difficult to say." Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump was "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he was governing. Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicted in May 2018 that Trump might not seek a second term were he to succeed in keeping all his campaign promises and "making America great again". The Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump on January 25, 2019. Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first official challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019. Weld, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee for vice president in 2016, is considered a long shot because his libertarian views on several political positions such as abortion rights, gay marriage and marijuana legalization conflict with traditionalist conservative positions. Former Illinois representative Joe Walsh launched the second primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying, "I'm going to do whatever I can. I don't want Trump to win. The country cannot afford to have him win. If I'm not successful, I'm not voting for him." On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he will be the third major Republican primary challenger to Trump, though he dropped out of the race on November 12. Declared major candidates Endorsements Democratic Party After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election. This divide between the establishment and progressive wings of the party has been reflected in several elections leading up to the 2020 primaries, most notably in 2017 with the election for DNC chair between Biden-backed moderate Tom Perez and Sanders-backed progressive Keith Ellison: Perez was elected chairman, but Ellison was appointed the deputy chair, a largely ceremonial role. In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hoped to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politico s Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war." Meanwhile, there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate, likely to build up credentials for the upcoming primary election. Perez has commented that the 2020 primary field would likely go into double digits, rivaling the size of the 2016 GOP primary, which consisted of 17 major candidates, setting a then-record for the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history. Several female candidates are expected to enter the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row. Speculation also mounted that Democrats' best bet to defeat President Trump would be to nominate their own celebrity or businessperson with no government experience, most notably Oprah Winfrey after her speech at the 75th Golden Globe Awards. The topic of age has been brought up among the most likely front-runners: former vice president Joe Biden, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, who will be 78, 71, and 79 respectively on inauguration day. Former Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid described the trio as "an old folks' home", expressing a need for fresh faces to step up and lead the party. There are 18 major candidates running active campaigns as of November 15, 2019. Counting the candidates who have dropped out, 28 major candidates have sought the 2020 Democratic nomination, breaking the aforementioned 2016 GOP primary's record for the largest presidential primary field for any political party since 1972. Declared major candidates Withdrawn candidates Individuals who have publicly expressed interest Endorsements Libertarian Party Libertarian debates are being held at multiple state conventions, as well as bi-weekly on the We Are Libertarians podcast. Declared candidates Withdrawn candidates Publicly expressed interest Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months. Endorsements Green Party On July 24, 2019, the Green Party of the United States officially recognized the campaign of Howie Hawkins. On August 26, 2019, Dario Hunter's campaign was also recognized. The remaining candidates may obtain formal recognition after meeting the established criteria by the party's Presidential Campaign Support Committee. On October 26, 2019, Hawkins was nominated by Socialist Party USA, in addition to seeking the Green nomination. Declared candidates Withdrawn candidates Endorsements Other nominations Party conventions | alt=Map of United States showing Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Austin | mark1=blue pog.svg | mark1size=10 | lat1_deg=43.045028 | lon1_deg=-87.918167 | label1=Milwaukee | position1=top | mark2=red pog.svg | mark2size=10 | lat2_deg=35.225 | lon2_deg=-80.839167 | label2=Charlotte | position2=top | mark3=gold pog.svg | mark3size=8 | lat3_deg=30.264980 | lon3_deg=-97.746600 | label3=Austin | position3=top | mark4=green pog.svg | mark4size=8 | lat4_deg=42.331429 | lon4_deg=-83.045753 | label4=Detroit | position4=bottom }} The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled from July 13 to 16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Houston, Texas and Miami Beach, Florida were also considered to host the convention. The 2020 Republican National Convention is planned to be held in Charlotte, North Carolina, from August 24 to 27. This will be the first time since 2004 that the two major party conventions will be held at least one month apart with the Summer Olympics in betweenLesniewski, Niels (October 1, 2018) "Republicans Set 2020 Convention Date for Late August" , Roll Call. Retrieved January 25, 2019. (in 2008 and 2012, the Democratic and Republican conventions were held in back-to-back weeks following the Summer Olympics, while in 2016 both were held before the Rio Games). The 2020 Libertarian National Convention will be held in Austin, Texas, over Memorial Day weekend from May 22 to 25.Winger, Richard The 2020 Green National Convention will be held in Detroit, Michigan from July 9 to 12. Greenville, South Carolina and Spartanburg, South Carolina were also considered to host the convention. The 2020 Constitution Party National Convention will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina in April. However, the location may be changed to Atlanta, Georgia. General election debates }} On October 11, 2019, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that three general election debates would be held in the fall of 2020: the first is scheduled to take place on September 29 at the University of Notre Dame in Notre Dame, Indiana, the second is scheduled to take place on October 15 at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and the third is scheduled to take place on October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. Additionally, one vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 7, 2020, at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. General election polling State predictions Most election predictors use: * "tossup": no advantage * "tilt" (used sometimes): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" * "lean": slight advantage * "likely" or "favored": significant, but surmountable, advantage (*highest rating given by Fox News) * "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory See also * 2020 United States gubernatorial elections * 2020 United States Senate elections * 2020 United States House of Representatives elections References External links Category:2020 United States presidential election Category:History of the United States (1991–present)